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Key NFL Next Gen Stats intel on divisional-round matchups

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Key NFL Next Gen Stats intel on divisional-round matchups

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  • Marc RaimondiJan 16, 2026, 06:05 AM ET

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      Marc Raimondi’s first year covering the Falcons was 2024, but it wasn’t his first year at ESPN. He joined the company in 2019 and was a top combat sports reporter. He also covered professional wrestling and wrote the book “Say Hello to the Bad Guys: How Pro Wrestling’s New World Order Changed America,” which was published by Simon & Schuster in 2025. Raimondi also worked for the New York Post and Newsday, beginning in 2009, covering high school and college sports, plus the NFL, NFL, MLB and NHL.

It was a 3-3 game with 26 seconds left in the half, and New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye couldn’t find an open receiver. But he did find a lane.

So Maye took off on a run that was expected to gain just 13 yards, but he was able to pick up 37 to the Los Angeles Chargers‘ 17-yard line. Two incompletions later, Andy Borregales kicked a 35-yard field goal to give the Pats a lead they wouldn’t relinquish in a 16-3 wild-card win.

Maye’s run had the most yards over expected — 24 — during the wild-card weekend, according to Next Gen Stats.

Maye’s running ability could be a factor Sunday when the Patriots host the Houston Texans (3 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN).

The Texans are likely to be without their top receiver as Nico Collins recovers from a concussion, but Christian Kirk showed how dangerous his speed can be with eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown in their win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Kirk turned in two of the fastest speeds during wild-card weekend as he hit 20.05 mph on a 46-yard reception and 19.64 mph on a 36-yard reception, according to Next Gen.

Here’s a look at some of Next Gen’s advanced metrics in analyzing all of this weekend’s divisional round games.

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS

Bills quarterback Josh Allen could find himself in jeopardy Saturday — early and often — if he’s not able to get better protection against one of the NFL’s best pass rushes.

Allen was sacked on 24.5% of his pressured dropbacks during the regular season, the fifth-highest rate in the league. That was three times his career-low mark of 8.2% from his MVP season in 2024. Meanwhile, the Broncos generated the second-highest pressure rate (40.7%) of any defense this season. Those pressures were turned into sacks 23.9% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

Denver allowed just a 46% completion percentage when forcing pressure (seventh lowest), and the team’s +116.1 EPA gained on sacks was the best in the league. Edge rusher Nik Bonitto was especially potent, generating 80 pressures (tied for fourth most) and a 20.2% pressure rate. Bonitto and Micah Parsons were the only players to eclipse 20% in pressure rate over more than 200 pass rushes.

However, although Allen got sacked at a higher rate this season than usual, he was deft at dealing with the rush. He averaged the fifth-most yards per attempt (8) and the fourth-highest completion percentage (69.3%) among quarterbacks when pressured.

Broncos quarterback Bo Nix did not fare similarly. Although he faced the third-lowest pressure rate among qualified quarterbacks (27.7%), Nix averaged just 3.7 air yards per completion, the second-lowest number of any quarterback going all the way back to 2018. The Bills’ defense wasn’t as destructive as the Broncos’ D was this season, but it still had the 12th-highest pressure rate in the league (35.3%).

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers and Seahawks split their season series, but the analytical advantage seems to fall the way of the top seed in the NFC.

Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold was tied for the most downfield passing touchdowns (19) this season and was pressured at the fourth-lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks (23%) on such throws. Additionally, Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a league-high 1,258 downfield receiving yards. No other wideout even broke the 1,000-yard mark.

How does that match up with a banged-up 49ers defense? San Francisco had the second-lowest pressure rate (26.7%) on dropbacks in the league this season. The 49ers beat the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend to advance with just a 16.2% pressure rate — the lowest of any defense in a wild-card round since 2020.

There is a reason the 49ers are here, though, and one could argue it starts with how well San Francisco protects quarterback Brock Purdy. He was one of two quarterbacks to average more than three seconds to throw this season. Purdy’s 3.17-second mark was only a shade shorter than Caleb Williams of the Bears (3.20 seconds). Purdy’s previous career long was almost a second quicker: 2.93 seconds.

Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC

One of the most intriguing matchups in the divisional round could end up being Maye against Texans two-time All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. There’s even some history there.

Maye threw his first career touchdown pass against the Texans in 2024, a 40-yard score to Kayshon Boutte that beat the coverage of Stingley. In that game, Maye completed four passes for 56 yards and a touchdown when targeting Stingley five times.

In his second season, Maye has blossomed into one of the league’s top quarterbacks and an efficient deep passer, completing 52.1% of passes of 20 or more air yards. And since that game against the Patriots last season, Stingley has been stingy. He has been tested deep 25 times and allowed just two completions for 86 yards and one touchdown. He has two interceptions on those plays and 12 passes defensed. Stingley’s 8% completion percentage allowed is the lowest of any defender to face at least 15 deep targets during that span.

Maye can certainly throw the deep ball, but will he have time against the Texans’ excellent pass rush? Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. combined for 153 pressures this season, the most by any duo in the NFL. Meanwhile, Patriots left tackle Will Campbell allowed pressure on 11.5% of his pass-blocking snaps, the eighth-highest rate among left tackles with at least 200 pass blocks. Last weekend, he allowed six pressures and two sacks.

Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

There was a reason the Rams were so keen on adding wide receiver Davante Adams last offseason. Pairing him with Puka Nacua has been formidable.

Adams’ six goal-line touchdown receptions (inside the 3-yard line) were tied for the most by any player in a season since 2016 with Mike Evans in 2024. And that’s despite Adams missing the final three weeks of the regular season. Nacua, meanwhile, gained a league-high 473 receiving yards on snaps when he was used in motion this season — the most by any player in a season since at least 2018.

Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have the guy who is passing to them: Matthew Stafford. Against the blitz this season, Stafford had a league-high 32 touchdowns and just a single interception. Narrowing that down into the red zone, he had 24 touchdowns without an interception in 53 passes. Stafford had just 29 touchdowns thrown against the blitz in his first four seasons with the Rams combined.

The Bears’ Williams was second this season in touchdowns thrown against the blitz (17), but by a wide margin.

Bears rookies — WR Luther Burden III and TE Colston Loveland — have made huge impacts in a surprising season. Burden generated 2.7 yards per route run this season, the second most by any rookie in a season in the Next Gen Stats era (min. 200 routes), trailing only Brown — then with the Tennessee Titans — in 2019.

Loveland averaged 8.9 air yards per target this season, the fourth-highest mark among tight ends with at least 35 targets. In the wild-card win over the Packers, he caught 4 of 8 downfield targets for 95 yards.



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